Neal Brown takes over an 11-2 team that will look nothing like the one that won 11 games, and the biggest change sits under center. Drew Mestemaker, who produced 161.7 PPA, left for Oklahoma State, and the job now belongs to whoever wins a competition that includes UCF transfer Tayven Jackson, the program's most productive portal addition at 80.2 PPA. Caleb Hawkins and Wyatt Young also departed for Oklahoma State, stripping away two more proven skill pieces, while Corri Milliner and Jahiem White arrive to help rebuild the perimeter. The offense still profiles as the stronger side of the ball heading into fall camp, but with 0% of returning quarterback production and just 14% of targets back, that offensive identity is being built largely from scratch. Defensively, the picture is murkier. That side of the ball already graded as the weaker unit, and losing depth up front and in coverage compounds the uncertainty facing a group that was already stretched thin.

JP+ projects North Texas at 6.4 wins, a notable step down from last season's win total and likely below what the market will expect given the recent record and the arrival of a proven head coach in Brown. The gap comes down to continuity — an offense replacing its quarterback and most of its target share, and a defense dealing with edge and coverage attrition, add up to real variance heading into the year. Road trips to Indiana, Navy, and UTSA won't make things easier, though a home slate against UAB, Charlotte, and Houston Christian offers a path to build confidence early. If Jackson or a fellow competitor wins the job cleanly and the defense's coverage replacements settle in fast, this team can outperform the projection. If the quarterback battle drags into the season and the front seven gets worn down, six or seven wins looks like the realistic ceiling.