JP+ One-Sheet
North Texas
American | 2026
Projected Wins
6.2Team Thesis
North Texas Turns The Page At Quarterback And Head Coach. Neal Brown takes over an 11-2 team that will look nothing like the one that won 11 games, and the biggest change sits under center.
Model Profile
#92
JP+ Rank
#42
Offense
#116
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
5.5
Market
6.2
JP+
5.0
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.7 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#72
Rated coverage60%
Candidate members78
Rated players47
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path67%
3-3 start73%
Collapse risk3%
73% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 67%. Collapse risk 3% (3 or fewer wins). Biggest shift Wk8: 88% to 25%.
Bull Case
8-4If Jackson or a fellow competitor wins the job cleanly and the defense's coverage replacements settle in fast, this team can outperform the proj…
Bear Case
5-7If the quarterback battle drags into the season and the front seven gets worn down, six or seven wins looks like the realistic ceiling.
American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| Navy | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Army | 7.6 | -- | 7.2 |
| Memphis | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| East Carolina | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| Tulane | 6.2 | 7.5 | 6.6 |
| North Texas | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Temple | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5.6 |