North Texas

The Mean Green must replace quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who departed for Oklahoma State along with running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young in a painful portal hit to the skill positions. New head coach Neal Brown inherits a team coming off an 11-2 season but grading out at just 105th nationally in JP+'s preseason power ratings, with the defense ranking 125th at -5.8 points per game dragging down an offense that projects 44th. UCF transfer Tayven Jackson brings 80.2 PPA to the quarterback competition, while West Virginia running back Jahiem White and UAB receiver Corri Milliner help fill the skill position gaps.

JP+ projects 4.9 wins for North Texas, a steep drop that reflects significant continuity concerns on both sides of the ball, particularly in pass coverage and along the defensive front. The offense lost considerable target share and faces uncertainty at quarterback, while the defense must replace key contributors in the secondary and pass rush. If the new signal-caller settles in quickly and Brown's system takes hold, the Mean Green could exceed modest expectations in the American Athletic Conference. If not, this could be a long rebuilding year in Denton.