North Dakota State

The defining challenge for North Dakota State centers on quarterback continuity as the program navigates a transition at the position while simultaneously rebuilding an offensive line that lost significant experience. The Bison grade out as the 85th-ranked team nationally with a -3.1 JP+ rating, anchored by a middling offense (+0.5, 56th) that faces structural uncertainty and a defense (-1.5, 81st) that maintained more stability through the offseason. Key offensive departures include Cole Payton and Bryce Lance, creating holes that limited transfer portal activity — just three arrivals against seven departures — leaves the program relying heavily on internal development to fill.

JP+ projects 8.2 wins for the Bison in their Mountain West campaign, with road contests at Air Force, UNLV, and New Mexico representing the season's steepest climbs while home dates against Northern Illinois and Fordham offer the clearest paths to victory. The gap between projection and expectations hinges largely on how quickly the offense can establish identity with new faces under center and along the front five, as offensive line continuity sits at just 57 percent while quarterback return share drops to zero percent. If the quarterback situation stabilizes early and the line jells quickly, North Dakota State could push toward nine wins and respectability in their new conference home — but continued offensive inconsistency could leave them scrambling to reach bowl eligibility in a competitive Mountain West landscape.