JP+ One-Sheet
North Dakota State
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
7.9
Model Profile
#80
JP+ Rank
#80
Off Adj
#76
Def Adj
Overall
-1.4
Offense
-0.7
Defense
-0.7
Win Total Context
9.5
Market
7.9
JP+
8.3
SP+
Bowl Path96%
Fast Start30%
Collapse Risk32%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
30% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 96%. Collapse risk 32% (7 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 92% to 35%.
Mountain West Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 8.3 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| UNLV | 8.0 | 7.5 | 8.7 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| New Mexico | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Wyoming | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| San Jose State | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| UTEP | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Northern Illinois | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 |