JP+ One-Sheet
North Dakota State
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
7.9Team Thesis
North Dakota State Faces an Offensive Line Reset in Its Mountain West Debut. The defining story here is structural, not dramatic: North Dakota State enters with a moderate offensive continuity risk centered on the trenches, with offensive line retur…
Model Profile
#81
JP+ Rank
#82
Offense
#83
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
9.5
Market
7.9
JP+
8.3
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
31% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 96%. Collapse risk 32% (7 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 92% to 38%.
Bull Case
9-3If the offensive line gels faster than the 57% return rate suggests and the special-teams edge tilts a few close games, this group pushes toward…
Bear Case
6-6If the line stays unsettled and the concentration risk at skill positions bites, a below-.500 finish is squarely in play.
Mountain West Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 8.1 | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| Air Force | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| New Mexico | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Wyoming | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| San Jose State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 |