The defining offseason move wasn't on defense — it was hiring Bobby Petrino to replace Freddie Kitchens as offensive coordinator, paired with a portal class aimed squarely at fixing an offense that dragged the team to a 4-8 finish. Giovanni Lopez returns as the starting quarterback, even after fellow passer Max Johnson left for Georgia Southern, and he'll have a retooled receiving corps led by Wisconsin transfer Trech Kekahuna, the headline arrival at 7.7 PPA. The tight end room also got real reinforcement from Jelani Thurman (Ohio State) and Jordan Washington (Texas), even as Jake Johnson departed for Auburn and Kobe Paysour left concentrated production behind. JP+ rates this roster as roughly average across the board on both sides of the ball, with the defense capable of real high points and the special teams unit grading out as a legitimate strength. That leaves an offense that was frequently the problem last season now armed with a new play-caller and new pass-catchers, with the returning defensive coordinator's unit again asked to be the floor while the skill groups figure out their identity.

JP+ projects 5.3 wins, a modest step up from a season ago, with the toughest tests coming at home against Notre Dame and Miami and on the road at Clemson, while Syracuse, East Tennessee State, and a trip to UConn offer the clearest paths to bowl eligibility. The gap between that number and any rosier outside expectation comes down to continuity concerns flagged internally — moderate offensive concentration risk tied to the receiver and quarterback rooms, plus a defense replacing enough departed role players that its per-play answers aren't fully settled. If Kekahuna and the tight ends give Lopez and Petrino's scheme enough juice to make the offense a plus unit rather than just an average one, this team can win the coin-flip games and push past the projection. If the passing game stalls again, the defense and special teams will have to be spectacular just to get back to bowl contention.