North Carolina

The offensive coordinator change brings fresh hope to a unit that desperately needs it. Bobby Petrino replaces Freddie Kitchens to guide an offense that ranked 81st nationally at -1.6 points below average, while the defense remained a strength at +1.9 points and 44th nationally. The Tar Heels lost tight end Jake Johnson (14.4 PPA) to Auburn and quarterback Max Johnson (13.0 PPA) to Georgia Southern, but Wisconsin transfer Trech Kekahuna headlines the incoming class with 7.7 PPA at receiver, joined by Ohio State tight end Jelani Thurman (6.6 PPA) and Texas tight end Jordan Washington (5.2 PPA).

JP+ projects 6.2 wins for a program coming off a 4-8 season, with Giovanni Lopez returning as the starting quarterback and special teams ranking 22nd nationally. The schedule includes brutal home tests against Notre Dame and Miami plus a road trip to Clemson, but winnable games against UConn, Syracuse, and East Tennessee State provide opportunities for bowl eligibility. If Petrino can unlock the offensive potential with Kekahuna leading a revamped passing attack, the Tar Heels could exceed projections and reach seven or eight wins. If the offensive struggles persist despite the coordinator change, another disappointing season looms in Chapel Hill.