JP+ One-Sheet
North Carolina
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
5.4Team Thesis
North Carolina Brings In Petrino and Kekahuna to Fix an Offense That Has Nowhere to Go But Up. The defining offseason move wasn't on defense — it was hiring Bobby Petrino to replace Freddie Kitchens as offensive coordinator, paired with a portal cla…
Model Profile
#66
JP+ Rank
#73
Offense
#55
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
4.5
Market
5.4
JP+
5.3
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.9 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#24
Rated coverage87%
Candidate members82
Rated players71
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path42%
3-3 start51%
Collapse risk3%
51% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 42%. Collapse risk 3% (2 or fewer wins). Biggest shift Wk3: 99% to 23%.
Bull Case
7-5If Kekahuna and the tight ends give Lopez and Petrino's scheme enough juice to make the offense a plus unit rather than just an average one, thi…
Bear Case
4-8If the passing game stalls again, the defense and special teams will have to be spectacular just to get back to bowl contention.
ACC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Virginia | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Wake Forest | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| North Carolina | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Syracuse | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 |