JP+ One-Sheet
North Carolina
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
5.3
Model Profile
#61
JP+ Rank
#72
Off Adj
#53
Def Adj
Overall
+1.9
Offense
-0.4
Defense
+0.7
Win Total Context
4.5
Market
5.3
JP+
5.4
SP+
Bowl Path41%
Fast Start49%
Collapse Risk3%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
49% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 41%. Collapse risk 3% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 99% to 21%.
ACC Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| Virginia | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 |
| Clemson | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| NC State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Cal | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Wake Forest | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| North Carolina | 5.3 | 4.5 | 5.4 |
| Syracuse | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Stanford | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.9 |