New Mexico State

The Aggies must replace their top receiving threat after Donovan Faupel's 33.3 PPA departed for Arkansas, along with tight end Gavin Harris (19.4 PPA) who transferred to Georgia Tech. Logan Fife returns as the starting quarterback, but he'll be throwing to an almost entirely new receiving corps led by Kennesaw State transfer Lyndon Ravare (11.0 PPA) and Stanford's Myles Libman (7.5 PPA). The offense ranks 137th nationally at -11.5 points, dragging down a team that gets modest help from a defense grading out at 89th (-2.0 points) and adequate special teams play.

JP+ projects just 0.7 wins for the Aggies in what appears to be a difficult slate featuring road trips to Florida State and Hawaii plus a rivalry game against New Mexico at home. The portal saw 24 departures cost 52.1 PPA while 25 arrivals added back only 23.4 PPA, leaving the roster thinner than last year's 4-8 squad. If Fife develops chemistry quickly with his new receivers and the defense can force enough stops to keep games competitive, New Mexico State might steal a surprise victory. If not, Conference USA play will be a long slog for an offense still searching for its identity.