JP+ One-Sheet
New Mexico State
Conference USA | 2026
Projected Wins
4.4
Model Profile
#129
JP+ Rank
#135
Off Adj
#99
Def Adj
Overall
-15.2
Offense
-10.8
Defense
-2.5
Win Total Context
4.5
Market
4.4
JP+
4.8
SP+
Bowl Path21%
Fast Start24%
Collapse Risk11%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
24% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 21%. Collapse risk 11% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 81% to 18%.
Conference USA Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.3 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| FIU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Delaware | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Missouri State | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| New Mexico State | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Sam Houston | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 |