JP+ One-Sheet
New Mexico State
Conference USA | 2026
Projected Wins
4.2Team Thesis
New Mexico State Leans on Logan Fife While the Skill Corps Rebuilds Around Him. New Mexico State's offseason theme is continuity at the position that matters most, paired with real turnover everywhere around it.
Model Profile
#130
JP+ Rank
#136
Offense
#100
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
4.5
Market
4.2
JP+
4.6
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.3 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#136
Rated coverage34%
Candidate members62
Rated players21
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path16%
3-3 start21%
Collapse risk16%
21% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 16%. Collapse risk 16% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 79% to 16%.
Bull Case
6-6If the new receivers click with Fife early and the defense's stability holds, this group can push past its number.
Bear Case
3-9If the concentration risk on offense lingers into October, 4-8 repeats itself.
Conference USA Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| FIU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.6 | -- | 6.6 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| New Mexico State | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Sam Houston | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 |