New Mexico

The Lobos enter 2026 with a tale of two units: an offense navigating significant departures and a defense that returns its core structure intact. New Mexico's mixed continuity profile stems from losing key offensive contributors like tight end Dorian Thomas (32.4 PPA) to Cal and running back DJ McKinney to Tulsa, while adding high-impact receiver Troy Omeire (32.2 PPA) from UNLV to help offset the losses. Jack Layne returns as the starting quarterback, providing stability at the most crucial position, though the offense grades out 88th nationally at -2.1 points and faces uncertainty with just 17% of targets returning from last season's 9-3 campaign.

JP+ projects 6.5 wins for the Lobos, who benefit from a defense that ranks 74th nationally and showed resilience throughout their strong 2025 season. The special teams unit provides a bright spot at 19th nationally, while the offense's struggles create a ceiling that depends heavily on how quickly new pieces like Omeire can integrate with Layne's returning leadership. If the defensive stability holds and the offense finds rhythm early against a schedule that includes road tests at Oklahoma, New Mexico could exceed modest expectations. If offensive chemistry takes too long to develop, the Lobos risk falling short of their recent success despite returning their starting quarterback.