New Mexico is coming off a 9-3 season with its starting quarterback intact, and that continuity at the most important position anchors an offseason defined more by turnover around him than beneath him. Jack Layne returns to run an offense that projects as roughly average, but he'll do so with a different supporting cast — Dorian Thomas (32.4 PPA) left for Cal, Isaiah Blair departed at receiver, and DJ McKinney took his 6.6 PPA to Tulsa. The portal response leans heavily on one addition: Troy Omeire arrives from UNLV with 32.2 PPA, instantly the most productive newcomer on the roster, while Oregon transfer Luke Moga adds quarterback depth behind Layne. The offensive line returns nearly 80% of its production and Layne's return share sits at 100%, giving this group real structural stability even as the receiving corps gets rebuilt around Omeire. The defense, by contrast, projects below average but carries lighter continuity risk than the offense, with no major role-loss flags surfaced this cycle — special teams should be a quiet strength that tilts close games.

JP+ projects New Mexico at 6.8 wins, and the market's Under 7.5 sits at 59% EV, suggesting the book is pricing in more optimism than the model shares. The gap comes down to schedule and defensive uncertainty — road trips to Oklahoma and Hawaii, plus a home date with UNLV, headline the difficult stretch, while Central Michigan, UTEP and Mercyhurst at home offer the clearest paths to bankable wins. If Omeire produces immediately and the offensive line's returning experience covers for the receiver turnover, New Mexico can push toward the upper half of that win range and make the Under uncomfortable. If the defense's below-average profile shows up against the tougher part of the slate, 6-7 wins is a fair equilibrium.