New Mexico

The Lobos' offseason revolves around replacing tight end Dorian Thomas, who transferred 32.4 points of production per adjustment to Cal, with wide receiver Troy Omeire bringing 32.2 PPA from UNLV. It's an almost perfect numerical swap that shifts the offensive identity from tight end-heavy sets to more traditional receiver packages. Jack Layne returns at quarterback to anchor an offense that grades 92nd nationally at -2.3 points, while the defense sits considerably stronger at 74th with a -0.8 rating. The special teams unit ranks 13th nationally at +0.4, providing a legitimate competitive advantage that helped fuel last season's 9-3 record.

JP+ projects 6.5 wins for the Lobos, a steep drop from their 2025 success that reflects both the competitive Mountain West landscape and offensive concerns. The defense kept them competitive last year and profiles as the more reliable unit again, but games against Oklahoma on the road and Air Force at home will test whether Omeire can immediately replicate Thomas's production in a different role. If Layne develops better chemistry with his new receiving corps early, this team could surprise and push toward eight wins. If the offensive transition stalls, they're looking at a .500 season despite strong defensive fundamentals.