JP+ One-Sheet
New Mexico
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
7.0Team Thesis
New Mexico Leans on Jack Layne and a Retooled Skill Corps After a 9-Win Season. New Mexico is coming off a 9-3 season with its starting quarterback intact, and that continuity at the most important position anchors an offseason defined more by turno…
Model Profile
#96
JP+ Rank
#91
Offense
#92
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
7.5
Market
7.0
JP+
8.2
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Early equity
63% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 86%. Collapse risk 14% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 94% to 6%.
Bull Case
9-3If Omeire produces immediately and the offensive line's returning experience covers for the receiver turnover, New Mexico can push toward the up…
Bear Case
6-6If the defense's below-average profile shows up against the tougher part of the slate, 6-7 wins is a fair equilibrium.
Mountain West Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 8.1 | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| Air Force | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| New Mexico | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Wyoming | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| San Jose State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 |