JP+ One-Sheet
New Mexico
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
6.8
Model Profile
#94
JP+ Rank
#88
Off Adj
#92
Def Adj
Overall
-4.3
Offense
-2.0
Defense
-2.0
Win Total Context
7.5
Market
6.8
JP+
7.9
SP+
Bowl Path82%
Fast Start59%
Collapse Risk18%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
59% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 82%. Collapse risk 18% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 94% to 6%.
Mountain West Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 8.3 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| UNLV | 8.0 | 7.5 | 8.7 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| New Mexico | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Wyoming | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| San Jose State | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| UTEP | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Northern Illinois | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 |