Nevada

Nevada's offseason revolves around one simple premise: can transfer quarterback Luke Duncan from UCLA salvage an offense that ranked 129th nationally last season? The Wolf Pack's -9.1 JP+ rating places them 118th in the preseason power rankings, with the offensive struggles (-7.1, 129th) far outweighing a respectable defense (-2.0, 88th) that kept them competitive despite a 3-9 record. The portal reshuffle brought 21 departures including tight end Jett Carpenter (10.9 PPA) who transferred to Texas Tech, but Duncan's 9.0 PPA arrival represents the kind of impact addition Nevada desperately needed with Carter Jones returning as the established starter.

JP+ projects 5.5 wins for Nevada, a significant jump from last year's three victories that reflects both Duncan's potential impact and the defense's continued stability. Road trips to UCLA, North Dakota State, and UNLV present the toughest challenges, while home games against San Jose State and Montana State plus a visit to Middle Tennessee offer the clearest paths to bowl eligibility. If Duncan can establish chemistry with the receiving corps and the defense maintains its 88th-ranked efficiency, Nevada could surprise in the Mountain West's middle tier. If the offensive line struggles persist and Duncan can't elevate the passing game, another long season awaits in Reno.