JP+ One-Sheet
Nevada
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
5.4Team Thesis
Nevada Faces Another Rebuild in the Secondary While Carter Jones Anchors the Offense. Nevada's offseason theme is coverage instability.
Model Profile
#120
JP+ Rank
#126
Offense
#104
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
4.5
Market
5.4
JP+
5.0
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.9 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#128
Rated coverage54%
Candidate members70
Rated players38
Season Path
Early equity
Bowl path46%
3-3 start68%
Collapse risk3%
68% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 46%. Collapse risk 3% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk9: 68% to 8%.
Bull Case
7-5If the secondary settles faster than expected and Jones finds rhythm with a retooled group of targets, six or seven wins is plausible.
Bear Case
4-8If the coverage unit struggles to replace lost experience, Nevada hovers right around last year's total again.
Mountain West Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 8.1 | 7.5 | 8.8 |
| Air Force | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| New Mexico | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| Wyoming | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| San Jose State | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 |