JP+ One-Sheet
Nevada
Mountain West | 2026
Projected Wins
5.4
Model Profile
#126
JP+ Rank
#129
Off Adj
#105
Def Adj
Overall
-12.7
Offense
-8.0
Defense
-3.1
Win Total Context
4.5
Market
5.4
JP+
5.2
SP+
Bowl Path44%
Fast Start65%
Collapse Risk3%
Path Shape
Early equity
65% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 44%. Collapse risk 3% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk9: 66% to 8%.
Mountain West Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 8.3 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| UNLV | 8.0 | 7.5 | 8.7 |
| North Dakota State | 7.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| Hawaii | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| New Mexico | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Wyoming | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| San Jose State | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| UTEP | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Northern Illinois | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 |