Nebraska

Transfers and infrastructure improve under the current regime, but Nebraska still needs one signature strength to spark hope for a program stuck in mediocrity. The Cornhuskers grade out 58th nationally with a +0.7 rating, carried by an offense that ranks 39th (+2.6) while a defense that surrenders 2.2 points per game more than average drags them down to 91st. Dylan Raiola's departure to Oregon (74.6 PPA) created a quarterback void filled by Anthony Colandrea's arrival from UNLV, bringing 183.4 PPA and immediate credibility to the position. Running back Emmett Johnson's draft departure (47.1 PPA) strips away ground game production, though the addition of receiver Kwazi Gilmer from UCLA (24.4 PPA) gives the new signal-caller another weapon.

JP+ projects exactly 5.0 wins for Nebraska, well below the market's 5.0-win expectation and creating betting value on the under. New defensive coordinator Rob Aurich inherits a unit that allowed too many explosive plays last season, and his ability to tighten coverage against Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana at home will determine whether the Cornhuskers can exceed modest projections. If Colandrea adapts quickly and the defense finds some backbone under Aurich, eight wins becomes possible. If not, Nebraska stares at another disappointing campaign hovering around .500.