NC State

CJ Bailey returns with arguably the most favorable schedule setup in the ACC, giving NC State its clearest path to a first-ever conference title game appearance. The Wolfpack grades out as a middle-tier ACC contender with a +4.0 rating that ranks 42nd nationally, powered by an offense that checks in 36th (+2.8) while the defense lags behind at 50th (+1.3). They lost key receiving threats Terrell Anderson (43.9 PPA) to USC and Noah Rogers (29.7 PPA) to Alabama, but Victor Snow arrives from Buffalo with 49.5 PPA to anchor the receiving corps alongside Davion Dozier (33.5 PPA) from Appalachian State.

JP+ projects 6.7 wins for a program that went 7-5 last season, suggesting the market may be undervaluing NC State's ceiling with Bailey under center and a schedule that features home games against Syracuse, Appalachian State, and Richmond among the easiest matchups. The toughest tests come on the road against Vanderbilt, Florida State, and North Carolina, but avoiding Clemson and Miami from the top tier of the league creates genuine opportunity. If Bailey takes another step forward and the defense improves from its middle-of-the-pack showing, NC State could surprise in the ACC race. If not, another .500-ish campaign feels like the floor.