JP+ One-Sheet
NC State
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.0Team Thesis
CJ Bailey Returns With A Schedule Built For A Breakthrough. CJ Bailey is back, and that's the whole story here.
Model Profile
#47
JP+ Rank
#36
Offense
#40
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
7.5
Market
7.0
JP+
7.1
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.5 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#42
Rated coverage73%
Candidate members73
Rated players53
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path85%
4-2 start55%
Collapse risk15%
55% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 85%. Collapse risk 15% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 98% to 30%.
Bull Case
9-3If the edge rotation holds up and the new pass-catchers hit the ground running, this team has the pieces to push past 7.1 and make a real run in…
Bear Case
6-6If the front seven bleeds pressure and the receiver questions linger into October, a solid-but-unspectacular season in the 7-6 range is the more…
ACC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Virginia | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| NC State | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 |