JP+ One-Sheet
NC State
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
7.1
Model Profile
#49
JP+ Rank
#37
Off Adj
#43
Def Adj
Overall
+3.9
Offense
+3.0
Defense
+1.9
Win Total Context
7.5
Market
7.1
JP+
6.8
SP+
Bowl Path87%
Fast Start58%
Collapse Risk13%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
58% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 87%. Collapse risk 13% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 98% to 30%.
ACC Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| Virginia | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 |
| Clemson | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| NC State | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Pitt | 6.5 | 7.5 | 6.8 |
| Duke | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Georgia Tech | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Cal | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.1 |