Navy went 10-2 running the option about as well as anyone in the country last season, and the good news is Blake Horvath is back under center to keep that machine humming. The catch is almost everyone around him isn't. Eli Heidenreich and Alex Tecza, two of the most productive skill players in the triple-option scheme, are gone, and the offense now has to replace a huge share of its production without much proven depth behind it. The offensive line returns about two-thirds of its snaps, but target distribution and overall roster continuity on that side sit right around 50 percent, which is a real number to sit with heading into fall camp. The defense, by contrast, loses little of note and looks like the steadier half of the roster, giving Navy a chance to lean on stops while the offense re-establishes its rhythm. The overall profile still grades out above average, buoyed by a defense that projects as roughly average on its own and a special teams unit that continues to be a quiet strength.

JP+ pegs Navy at 7.9 wins, a number that reflects real respect for the program but also acknowledges the uncertainty baked into replacing so much offensive production at once. The schedule offers a clear line of demarcation: Notre Dame on a neutral field and road trips to Air Force and UTSA stand out as the toughest tests, while road games at UAB and Charlotte and a home date with Towson look like the most manageable stretches. The gap between that projection and any market optimism likely comes down to how quickly the option offense finds a new identity around Horvath, given the concentration of departed production and the lack of proven portal reinforcements arriving to offset it. If the offensive line's returning experience translates into a quick identity around Horvath, Navy's defense-first floor could push toward another ten-win season. If the skill-position replacements struggle to find their footing, a step back into the seven- or eight-win range feels like the more realistic outcome.