JP+ One-Sheet

Navy

American | 2026

Projected Wins

7.8

Team Thesis

Navy Must Replace Its Offensive Engine While the Defense Carries the Load. Navy went 10-2 running the option about as well as anyone in the country last season, and the good news is Blake Horvath is back under center to keep that machine humming.

Model Profile

#57

JP+ Rank

#40

Offense

#77

Defense

+3.5

Overall

+2.6

Offense

-0.4

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

7.5

Market

7.8

JP+

8.0

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.3 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#134

Rated coverage18%

Candidate members55

Rated players10

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path95%

4-2 start74%

Collapse risk5%

74% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 95%. Collapse risk 5% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk9: 76% to 12%.

Bull Case

9-3

If the offensive line's returning experience translates into a quick identity around Horvath, Navy's defense-first floor could push toward anoth…

Bear Case

6-6

If the skill-position replacements struggle to find their footing, a step back into the seven- or eight-win range feels like the more realistic…

American Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
South Florida	8.2	8.5	8.1
Navy	7.8	7.5	8.0
Army	7.6	--	7.2
Memphis	7.4	7.5	7.8
East Carolina	7.4	7.5	7.6
UTSA	7.2	7.5	7.5
Tulsa	6.7	5.5	6.6
FAU	6.4	5.5	6.5