Casey Woods takes over a Missouri State program coming off a 7-5 season, and he inherits a roster that's stable at the most important position but shaky almost everywhere around it. Jacob Clark returns as the starting quarterback, which should provide some continuity even as the offensive line resets and the receiving corps loses its top two producers in Tristian Gardner (33.1 PPA, now at Coastal Carolina) and Ronnel Johnson (18.0 PPA, off to Jacksonville State). The portal response brought in 19 newcomers led by Skyler Locklear from UTEP, plus receivers Isaiah Myers from Western Kentucky and Mekhi Miller from Tulsa, but replacing that much target share and offensive line continuity at once is a real question. Defensively, the front seven took a hit too, with edge and pressure attrition leaving Woods' staff needing quick answers up front. The broad qualitative profile here is unflattering across the board — an offense that projects as below average, a defense that grades bottom-tier, and special teams in the same range, which paints this as a rebuilding year more than a retooling one.

JP+ pegs Missouri State at 5.0 projected wins, while the market's set the over/under at 4.5 with 31% modeled edge on the over. The gap comes down to where the toughest tests fall — road trips to Texas A&M, SMU, and Western Kentucky are all likely losses — against a home slate featuring New Mexico State, Sam Houston, and Lindenwood that should be favorable. Given the offensive line reset, the receiver turnover, and the edge attrition on defense, there's real uncertainty in how fast Woods' newcomers gel. If Clark finds quick chemistry with Myers and Miller and the new-look defensive front holds up against the run, this team clears 5.1 comfortably. If the trenches lag on both sides, it's a step back toward the bottom of Conference USA.