JP+ One-Sheet
Missouri State
Conference USA | 2026
Projected Wins
5.0
Model Profile
#121
JP+ Rank
#111
Off Adj
#127
Def Adj
Overall
-11.7
Offense
-3.8
Defense
-6.4
Win Total Context
4.5
Market
5.0
JP+
3.8
SP+
Bowl Path32%
Fast Start29%
Collapse Risk5%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
29% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 32%. Collapse risk 5% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.8 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 88% to 39%.
Conference USA Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.3 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| FIU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Delaware | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Missouri State | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| New Mexico State | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Sam Houston | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 |