JP+ One-Sheet
Missouri State
Conference USA | 2026
Projected Wins
5.0Team Thesis
Missouri State Turns The Page With Casey Woods, But The Trenches Are The Story. Casey Woods takes over a Missouri State program coming off a 7-5 season, and he inherits a roster facing major turnover at quarterback and across the trenches.
Model Profile
#124
JP+ Rank
#111
Offense
#128
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
3.5
Market
5.0
JP+
4.1
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
71% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 31%. Collapse risk 1% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 87% to 37%.
Bull Case
7-5If the new signal-caller finds quick chemistry with Myers and Miller and the new-look defensive front holds up against the run, this team clears…
Bear Case
4-8If the trenches lag on both sides, it's a step back toward the bottom of Conference USA.
Conference USA Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| FIU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.6 | -- | 6.6 |
| Delaware | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Missouri State | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 |