Missouri State

The Bears enter Conference USA having lost their top two receiving threats, with Tristian Gardner (33.1 PPA) transferring to Coastal Carolina and Ronnel Johnson (18.0 PPA) heading to Jacksonville State. That's a combined 51.1 PPA in receiving production walking out the door, creating significant holes for an offense that already grades out as barely below average at 89th nationally. Jacob Clark returns as the starting quarterback and gains reinforcements from Isaiah Myers (Western Kentucky) and Mekhi Miller (Tulsa), but replacing Gardner and Johnson's combined impact won't be simple. The defense ranks 126th nationally and allowed too many points in a 7-5 campaign that exceeded expectations.

JP+ projects just 0.3 wins for Missouri State, though that's based on a limited two-game sample that includes road trips to Texas A&M and SMU. The Bears lost 57.9 PPA through 11 portal departures while adding only 12.0 PPA from 19 incoming transfers, led by quarterback Skyler Locklear from UTEP. Special teams rank 123rd nationally, completing a trifecta of below-average units that will make competing in Conference USA difficult. If Clark can develop chemistry quickly with his new receivers and the defense shows marked improvement, Missouri State could surprise in league play. If not, the Bears face a rebuilding season in their new conference home.