Missouri State

Casey Woods takes over a Missouri State program coming off a solid 7-5 campaign but facing significant roster reconstruction through the transfer portal. The Bears lost 57.9 points of production to departures while adding just 12.0 through arrivals, headlined by quarterback Skyler Locklear from UTEP (5.3 PPA) who joins returning starter Jacob Clark in what appears to be a competitive quarterback room. Key offensive losses include wide receivers Tristian Gardner (33.1 PPA) to Coastal Carolina and Ronnel Johnson (18.0 PPA) to Jacksonville State, with replacements Isaiah Myers from Western Kentucky and Mekhi Miller from Tulsa bringing modest production histories. JP+ rates the Bears 114th nationally at -8.7 points, with particular weaknesses on defense (-5.2, 121st) and special teams (-0.4, 118th) offsetting a middling offensive projection (-3.0, 98th).

JP+ projects 5.8 wins for Missouri State in 2026, suggesting a step back from last season's bowl-eligible finish as Woods navigates his first season leading a program. The Bears face structural uncertainty across multiple units, with moderate offensive line continuity concerns and defensive front reset issues creating potential volatility in both directions. Road trips to Texas A&M and SMU headline a challenging slate, though home games against New Mexico State, Sam Houston, and Lindenwood offer win opportunities to build momentum. If Woods can quickly establish depth chart clarity and the returning pieces gel with portal additions, Missouri State could surprise in Conference USA. If the continuity concerns manifest as early-season struggles, however, the Bears risk falling well short of their recent bowl standard.