Mississippi State

The Bulldogs' path back to relevance runs through Kamario Taylor's emergence as a statistical superstar in an offense that should finally give him the touches he deserves. Mississippi State grades out 41st nationally with a +3.8 rating, powered by an offense that ranks 31st (+3.1) but dragged down by a defense that sits 70th (-0.3). The portal reshuffle brought in Missouri receiver Marquis Johnson (17.4 PPA) to replace departed wideout Jordan Mosley, while Appalachian State quarterback AJ Swann (12.0 PPA) joins a competition to replace Blake Shapen. New defensive coordinator Zach Arnett returns to Starkville after serving as the program's DC from 2020-22, tasked with fixing a unit that cost the Bulldogs multiple games in their 5-7 campaign.

JP+ projects 5.1 wins for Mississippi State, which would fall short of bowl eligibility for the second straight season despite the offensive improvements. The defense remains the primary concern — ranking 70th nationally — while penalties and inconsistent special teams execution plagued the program throughout 2025. Road trips to LSU, Texas, and Ole Miss represent the toughest tests on a schedule that offers winnable home games against Auburn, ULM, and Tennessee Tech. If Taylor explodes statistically and Arnett's defensive adjustments take hold early, the Bulldogs could surprise and reach six wins. If the defense continues to leak points in SEC play, another disappointing fall awaits in Starkville.