JP+ One-Sheet
Mississippi State
SEC | 2026
Projected Wins
5.1
Model Profile
#39
JP+ Rank
#28
Off Adj
#62
Def Adj
Overall
+5.5
Offense
+4.3
Defense
+0.2
Win Total Context
4.5
Market
5.1
JP+
4.5
SP+
Bowl Path35%
Fast Start50%
Collapse Risk3%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
50% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 35%. Collapse risk 3% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk13: 99% to 16%.
SEC Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.8 |
| LSU | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.6 |
| Texas A&M | 8.4 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Texas | 8.0 | 9.5 | 8.6 |
| Ole Miss | 7.8 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
| Florida | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
| Tennessee | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| South Carolina | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Auburn | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| Mississippi State | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Arkansas | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Kentucky | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 |