The run game was the worst in the Big Ten last season, and everything Minnesota wants to accomplish in 2026 runs through fixing that before it can lean fully on Drake Lindsey, who returns as the starter after a rising season under center. The roster moves reflect the priority: Fame Ijeboi, last year's leading portal-tracked back producer, left for Purdue, while the receiving corps also thinned out with Malachi Coleman heading to Wisconsin and Kenric Lanier II to Missouri. In their place, Minnesota brought in Zion Steptoe from Tulsa and Noah Jennings from Cincinnati to give Lindsey fresh targets, plus quarterback Michael Merdinger from Liberty as insurance depth. The offense projects as roughly average, the defense as roughly average, and special teams as a genuine strength, which mirrors a team that should be competitive without a signature unit carrying it. Continuity numbers back up the mixed picture — full return share at quarterback and 85% along the offensive line, but only 17% returning production at the skill spots, meaning Lindsey will be throwing to a mostly new group.

JP+ projects 5.9 wins, a number that likely sits below where the market and preseason chatter will land given the buzz around Lindsey's development. The gap comes down to answering whether the run game — historically the offense's biggest liability — can be repaired enough to take pressure off the passing attack, and whether the retooled receiving corps gels quickly with limited returning production at the position. The defense isn't flagged for any major role losses and looks stable heading into the year, which gives the team a floor even if the offense stumbles early. If the run game turns competent and Steptoe and Jennings hit the ground running, a push toward 10 wins is realistic. If the ground game stays broken, Minnesota is back in the 6-7 win range that defined last season.