JP+ One-Sheet

Minnesota

Big Ten | 2026

Projected Wins

5.8

Team Thesis

Minnesota's Season Hinges on Fixing the Run Game Around Drake Lindsey. The run game was the worst in the Big Ten last season, and everything Minnesota wants to accomplish in 2026 runs through fixing that before it can lean fully on Drake Lindsey, wh…

Model Profile

#53

JP+ Rank

#49

Offense

#59

Defense

+4.6

Overall

+1.6

Offense

+0.4

Defense

Why JP+ Is Lower

6.5

Market

5.8

JP+

6.1

SP+

JP+ GAP: -0.7 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#41

Rated coverage84%

Candidate members79

Rated players66

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path57%

4-2 start54%

Collapse risk19%

54% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 57%. Collapse risk 19% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 94% to 22%.

Bull Case

7-5

If the run game turns competent and Steptoe and Jennings hit the ground running, a push toward 10 wins is realistic.

Bear Case

4-8

If the ground game stays broken, Minnesota is back in the 6-7 win range that defined last season.

Big Ten Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Indiana	9.8	10.5	10.0
Oregon	9.7	10.5	10.2
Ohio State	9.5	9.5	10.2
Penn State	8.8	9.5	9.0
Iowa	7.8	7.5	8.0
Maryland	6.1	5.5	6.0
Minnesota	5.8	6.5	6.1
Northwestern	5.7	5.5	5.3