JP+ One-Sheet
Minnesota
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
5.9
Model Profile
#52
JP+ Rank
#53
Off Adj
#60
Def Adj
Overall
+3.6
Offense
+1.1
Defense
+0.3
Win Total Context
6.5
Market
5.9
JP+
6.0
SP+
Bowl Path59%
Fast Start57%
Collapse Risk18%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
57% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 59%. Collapse risk 18% (4 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.5 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 93% to 24%.
Big Ten Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| Oregon | 9.6 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.6 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.9 | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| Iowa | 8.2 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| UCLA | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Maryland | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.8 |
| Wisconsin | 6.0 | 6.5 | 5.4 |
| Minnesota | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Rutgers | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Northwestern | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 |