Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee's offseason revolves around replacing departed offensive playmakers who carried much of the scoring burden in 2025. The Blue Raiders lost receiver Nahzae Cox to Kansas, tight end Hunter Tipton to Memphis, and running back Jekail Middlebrook to Virginia — three players who combined for significant production in the passing game. Nick Vattiato returns at quarterback, providing stability under center, but he'll work with largely new targets after the program brought in receiver Markus Allen from Mississippi State and running back Antonio Martin Jr. from Kansas State. The defense grades out as the weaker unit nationally at 127th, while the offense ranks 112th in JP+'s preseason ratings, combining for an overall power rating of -12.5 points.

JP+ projects 5.0 wins for Middle Tennessee, slightly above the betting market's 4.5-game total, with road trips to Kansas, Jacksonville State, and Marshall representing the toughest tests on a Conference USA schedule. The gap between projection and market reflects modest optimism about quarterback continuity offsetting the target-share turnover, though the defense's struggles limit the ceiling considerably. If Vattiato develops chemistry quickly with his new receivers and the defense shows improvement, six or seven wins becomes possible. If the offensive transition proves bumpy and defensive issues persist, another sub-.500 season looms likely.