JP+ One-Sheet
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA | 2026
Projected Wins
4.4
Model Profile
#127
JP+ Rank
#109
Off Adj
#131
Def Adj
Overall
-13.6
Offense
-3.8
Defense
-7.9
Win Total Context
3.5
Market
4.4
JP+
2.5
SP+
Bowl Path18%
Fast Start72%
Collapse Risk2%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
72% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 18%. Collapse risk 2% (1 or fewer wins). Biggest shift Wk2: 90% to 16%.
Conference USA Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.3 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| FIU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Delaware | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Missouri State | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| New Mexico State | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Sam Houston | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 |