JP+ One-Sheet
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA | 2026
Projected Wins
4.3Team Thesis
Middle Tennessee Leans on Vattiato Continuity While Replacing Its Skill-Position Core. The theme here is subtraction at the skill positions around a returning quarterback.
Model Profile
#128
JP+ Rank
#112
Offense
#134
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
3.5
Market
4.3
JP+
3.0
SP+
JP+ GAP: +0.8 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#117
Rated coverage60%
Candidate members62
Rated players37
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path18%
2-4 start70%
Collapse risk2%
70% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 18%. Collapse risk 2% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 90% to 15%.
Bull Case
6-6If Allen and the incoming receivers replace Cox's production faster than expected, Middle Tennessee pushes toward the middle of that 4.5 range o…
Bear Case
3-9If not, the offense stalls behind a defense that has to carry the load again, and the record looks a lot like 2025.
Conference USA Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| FIU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.6 | -- | 6.6 |
| Delaware | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Missouri State | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 |