Middle Tennessee

The Blue Raiders enter 2026 trying to rebuild an offense that lost its most productive skill position players to the transfer portal. Nick Vattiato returns at quarterback, but he'll be throwing to different targets after Nahzae Cox (20.7 PPA) departed for Kansas and Hunter Tipton (16.8 PPA) left for Memphis, while running back Jekail Middlebrook (14.2 PPA) transferred to Virginia. The portal replacements haven't moved the needle much — receiver Markus Allen from Mississippi State and running back Antonio Martin Jr. from Kansas State arrive with minimal production metrics. JP+ rates the offense 113th nationally at -4.3 points, while a defense that surrenders 7.0 points below average ranks 129th, creating a perfect storm for another difficult season.

JP+ projects just 0.7 wins for Middle Tennessee in what appears to be a rebuilding year following a 3-9 campaign. The Blue Raiders lost 62.7 PPA through 17 portal departures while adding only 18 players who collectively bring -1.2 PPA, a net loss that explains why the overall rating sits at -11.1 points (124th nationally). Special teams provides the lone bright spot at 37th nationally, but that unit alone can't overcome significant deficiencies on both sides of the ball. If the returning quarterback can develop chemistry quickly with his new skill position players and the defense shows unexpected improvement, Conference USA games become more competitive. If not, another long season awaits in Murfreesboro.