Michigan State

Pat Fitzgerald is back in the Big Ten, but don't expect miracles right away from a Michigan State program coming off a 4-8 season and massive roster turnover. Step one is improving the lines, starting with OT Ben Murawski's arrival from UConn to shore up protection for whoever wins the quarterback competition after Aidan Chiles transferred to Northwestern. The Spartans lost significant offensive firepower with Chiles (98.7 PPA) and receiver Nick Marsh (28.2 PPA) departing, while adding UCF transfer QB Cam Fancher (6.7 PPA) and Iowa running back Jaziun Patterson (8.6 PPA) to help fill the gaps. JP+ rates Michigan State 59th nationally at +0.3 points, with both the offense (-0.3, 73rd) and defense (-0.2, 68th) grading below average after losing 47 players to the portal while adding just 28.

JP+ projects 4.4 wins for the Spartans in what should be viewed as a foundational year rather than a breakthrough campaign. The combination of a new quarterback, defensive secondary turnover, and an unforgiving Big Ten schedule featuring road trips to Notre Dame and Michigan creates significant headwinds for immediate improvement. Fitzgerald's track record suggests the program will eventually stabilize, but this roster needs time to develop chemistry and depth across multiple position groups. If the new signal-caller emerges quickly and the offensive line gels around Murawski, Michigan State could surprise in a few winnable home games. If not, this becomes a patient rebuilding year focused on 2027 and beyond.