Michigan State

Pat Fitzgerald is back in the Big Ten, but don't expect miracles right away from his Michigan State rebuild after a 4-8 campaign that left the Spartans ranked 63rd nationally in JP+'s preseason power ratings at +0.5 points. The foundation starts with improving the offensive and defensive lines, highlighted by the addition of offensive tackle Ben Murawski from UConn to anchor protection for whoever emerges from the quarterback competition. The Spartans lost significant production through the portal, most notably quarterback Aidan Chiles (98.7 PPA) who transferred to Northwestern and receiver Nick Marsh (28.2 PPA) who landed at Indiana, while adding Iowa running back Jaziun Patterson (8.6 PPA) as their most impactful incoming transfer alongside UCF quarterback Cam Fancher and Notre Dame receiver KK Smith.

JP+ projects 5.5 wins for the Spartans in 2026, which creates betting value on the over 3.5 with a 32% expected value against market expectations that remain skeptical of immediate progress. The offense grades out 60th nationally at +0.3 points while the defense sits at 65th (+0.1), numbers that reflect a team still searching for identity on both sides of the ball as the new signal-caller takes over under center. Road trips to Notre Dame and Michigan plus a home date with Oregon represent the steepest challenges, while Nebraska, Toledo, and Eastern Michigan at home offer the clearest paths to victories. If Fitzgerald can stabilize the lines and the quarterback competition produces a competent starter, six or seven wins become achievable. If not, another long season looms in East Lansing.