JP+ One-Sheet
Michigan State
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
4.3
Model Profile
#76
JP+ Rank
#78
Off Adj
#74
Def Adj
Overall
-0.6
Offense
-0.6
Defense
-0.3
Win Total Context
4.5
Market
4.3
JP+
4.5
SP+
Bowl Path17%
Fast Start54%
Collapse Risk12%
Path Shape
Cliff risk
54% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 17%. Collapse risk 12% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 83% to 7%.
Big Ten Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| Oregon | 9.6 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.6 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.9 | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| Iowa | 8.2 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Washington | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| USC | 7.4 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| UCLA | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| Northwestern | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Purdue | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Michigan State | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 |