JP+ One-Sheet
Michigan State
Big Ten | 2026
Projected Wins
4.3Team Thesis
Pat Fitzgerald Returns to the Big Ten With a Line-First Rebuild in East Lansing. Pat Fitzgerald is back in the Big Ten, and Michigan State is the vehicle this time, coming off a 4-8 season that left plenty to fix.
Model Profile
#76
JP+ Rank
#79
Offense
#76
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
4.5
Market
4.3
JP+
4.6
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.2 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#65
Rated coverage66%
Candidate members73
Rated players48
Season Path
Cliff risk
Bowl path17%
3-3 start54%
Collapse risk13%
54% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 17%. Collapse risk 13% (2 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 85% to 7%.
Bull Case
6-6If the line jells early and the quarterback competition produces a steady answer, this group can push past its projection and be competitive in…
Bear Case
3-9If not, it's another year of building toward what Fitzgerald wants this program to become.
Big Ten Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Oregon | 9.7 | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| Ohio State | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| Penn State | 8.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Iowa | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Purdue | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| Michigan State | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 |