Pat Fitzgerald is back in the Big Ten, and Michigan State is the vehicle this time, coming off a 4-8 season that left plenty to fix. The plan starts up front, where UConn transfer tackle Ben Murawski arrives to anchor an offensive line that has to hold up behind whoever wins the quarterback competition. Aidan Chiles is gone to Northwestern along with his 98.7 PPA, and Nick Marsh followed him out the door to Indiana, stripping the passing game of its top two weapons. The portal churn was significant either way — 47 departures against 28 arrivals — with UCF's Cam Fancher joining the quarterback mix and Iowa running back Jaziun Patterson the headline addition on offense. The JP+ model reads this team as roughly average across offense, defense, and special teams, which tracks with a program mid-transition rather than one in outright decline. On defense, the concern isn't talent so much as continuity, with notable attrition in coverage and edge roles that will need new answers before Big Ten play arrives.

JP+ projects 4.3 wins, a number that leans on the uncertainty baked into a new quarterback, a rebuilt receiving corps, and a secondary replacing experience it can't easily replicate. The schedule doesn't do the Spartans many favors either, with trips to Notre Dame and Michigan bookending a home date against Oregon, while Northwestern, Toledo, and Eastern Michigan at home offer the clearest paths to wins. The gap between projection and expectation largely comes down to how quickly Murawski and the offensive line stabilize the run game and protect the new signal-caller, and whether the defense can patch its coverage losses fast enough to hold leads. If the line jells early and the quarterback competition produces a steady answer, this group can push past its projection and be competitive in December. If not, it's another year of building toward what Fitzgerald wants this program to become.