Miami

Life after Carson Beck begins now for Miami, which must replace its departed signal-caller with Duke transfer Darian Mensah while chasing the program's first ACC title and proving last year's National Championship game run wasn't a one-year flash. The Hurricanes enter 2026 ranked seventh nationally in JP+'s preseason ratings at +19.7 points, powered by a dominant defense that grades fifth nationally at +11.3 points and an offense that checks in 14th at +8.2 points. Miami lost receiver Joshisa Trader to NC State and Ny Carr to Wake Forest via the portal but added significant firepower with Mensah (183.9 PPA) and his former Duke teammate Cooper Barkate (64.3 PPA), plus West Virginia transfer Cam Vaughn (15.9 PPA) to rebuild the receiving corps.

JP+ projects 9.4 wins for Miami in a schedule that features road tests at Notre Dame and Clemson alongside a home showdown with Florida State, while easier matchups against Boston College, Central Michigan, and Florida A&M provide opportunities to build momentum. The betting market has set Miami's win total at 10.5, creating value on the under according to JP+'s 55% expected value calculation, as the quarterback transition and portal turnover create uncertainty despite the talent upgrade. If Mensah adapts quickly and the elite defense maintains its standard, Miami could capture that elusive ACC crown and make another playoff run. If the new signal-caller struggles early or key portal additions don't mesh immediately, the Hurricanes risk falling short of double-digit wins in a competitive conference race.