JP+ One-Sheet
Miami
ACC | 2026
Projected Wins
9.8Team Thesis
Miami Replaces Its Quarterback and Tries to Prove Last Year Was Real. The defining move of Miami's offseason came out of the portal, not the draft board: Carson Beck is gone, and Darian Mensah arrives from Duke to try to replicate what he did there.
Model Profile
#11
JP+ Rank
#15
Offense
#7
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
10.5
Market
9.8
JP+
10.0
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Soft landing
38% to start 6-0 or better. Bowl path 100%. Collapse risk 11% (8 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk10: 83% to 39%.
Bull Case
11-1If Mensah settles in quickly and the front seven finds enough pressure to support an elite back end, Miami's first ACC title and a return trip t…
Bear Case
8-4If the concentration risk on offense or the pass rush attrition bites instead, a step back into the nine-or-ten-win range feels like the more li…
ACC Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| Virginia | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| SMU | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Louisville | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Clemson | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| Florida State | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| NC State | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Virginia Tech | 7.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 |