Miami (OH)

The RedHawks face a target-share reconstruction project after losing leading receiver Cole Weaver to Syracuse via the portal, creating uncertainty around quarterback Dequan Finn's returning cast. Miami grades out at 72nd nationally with a -1.0 power rating, weighed down by an offense that ranks 93rd while the defense sits at a respectable 69th. The portal activity tells the story: 14 departures cost 25.2 points of production value while 15 arrivals added just -3.6 points, headlined by Arizona transfer receiver Devin Hyatt and Wisconsin running back Cade Yacamelli stepping into key roles.

JP+ projects 8.0 wins for Miami, creating value on the over 7.5 market as the defense provides a foundation that kept them competitive in 2025's 7-6 campaign. The special teams unit ranks 16th nationally, offering hidden value in close games, while road trips to Cincinnati, Pitt, and Western Michigan represent the season's toughest tests. If Finn can develop chemistry with his new receiving corps quickly, the RedHawks could surprise in MAC play. If the target-share replacement struggles early, they're looking at another .500 season despite defensive stability.