JP+ One-Sheet

Miami (OH)

Mid-American | 2026

Projected Wins

7.5

Team Thesis

Miami (OH) Returns Finn but Must Replace Its Top Target. Dequan Finn is back under center, which means the RedHawks avoid the quarterback scramble that so many MAC teams face this offseason.

Model Profile

#87

JP+ Rank

#100

Offense

#81

Defense

-3.0

Overall

-2.8

Offense

-0.9

Defense

Why JP+ Converges

7.5

Market

7.5

JP+

8.4

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.0 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#94

Rated coverage74%

Candidate members85

Rated players63

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path92%

4-2 start49%

Collapse risk8%

49% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 92%. Collapse risk 8% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.7 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 72% to 20%.

Bull Case

9-3

If the receiving corps gels around Hyatt and the offensive line's 71% returning production translates to protection for Finn, this team pushes t…

Bear Case

6-6

If the target-share losses linger into October, 7-6 repeats itself and the over bet look like it came down to the final week.

Mid-American Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
Toledo	8.2	7.5	7.5
Miami (OH)	7.5	7.5	8.4
Western Michigan	7.3	7.5	7.4
Ohio	6.5	6.5	7.0
Buffalo	6.3	--	7.0
Eastern Michigan	6.2	5.5	5.9
Central Michigan	6.2	6.5	5.7
Bowling Green	5.6	4.5	5.3