Dequan Finn is back under center, which means the RedHawks avoid the quarterback scramble that so many MAC teams face this offseason. But the portal still took a bite out of this offense: Cole Weaver, who produced 25.2 PPA, is now at Syracuse, and Kam Perry and Jordan Brunson also departed from the skill-position mix. The incoming class doesn't fully replace that lost production on paper — led by Devin Hyatt from Arizona and Wisconsin transfer running back Cade Yacamelli — which lines up with a offense that projects as below average and leans on Finn to make the pass-catching corps whole again. The defense, by contrast, enters with stable continuity and no major role losses flagged, giving it a chance to anchor things again the way it did during a 7-6 season. Special teams grade out as a genuine strength, the kind of unit that can steal field position and flip close MAC games.

JP+ pegs Miami (OH) at 7.7 projected wins, and the over/under market sits at 7.5 with the over carrying 31% expected value — a gap that traces directly to the uncertainty around who replaces Weaver's target share more than any doubt about Finn or the defense. Road trips to Cincinnati, Pitt, and Western Michigan represent the toughest tests, while games against Kent State, Akron, and UMass offer the clearest paths to bowl eligibility. If the receiving corps gels around Hyatt and the offensive line's 71% returning production translates to protection for Finn, this team pushes toward nine wins and a MAC title conversation. If the target-share losses linger into October, 7-6 repeats itself and the over bet look like it came down to the final week.