Charles Huff takes over a Memphis program that won eight games last year, and he inherits a team built to look above average overall even as the pieces underneath shift considerably. Brendon Lewis returns at quarterback, which anchors the offense against an otherwise steep round of turnover — the group is roughly average, which puts real pressure on a defense that projects the same way. The portal cut both directions. Memphis lost Jamari Hawkins and Sutton Smith to Arkansas and safety Cameron Miller to Kennesaw State, but brought in Tychaun Chapman from Southern Miss, Hunter Tipton from Middle Tennessee, and running back Manny Covey from Cincinnati to refill the skill positions. Special teams remain a strength, a stabilizing factor while the rest of the roster reintroduces itself. With 47 departures and 51 arrivals reshaping the two-deep, continuity is thin in the secondary especially, where coverage attrition is the headline concern behind a defense that lost meaningful role snaps.

JP+ projects 7.4 wins, a number that reflects both the above-average program-wide profile and the real uncertainty embedded in a roster that just turned over nearly half its production. The toughest tests come on the road at Navy, Boise State, and South Florida, while home dates with UAB and UT Martin plus a trip to Charlotte offer the clearest paths to bank wins early. The gap between that projection and any market expectation set by last year's eight-win finish likely comes down to how quickly Huff's roster settles — receiver targets are unproven beyond Chapman, and the secondary is rebuilding around fewer returning faces than the win total alone would suggest. If Lewis finds quick chemistry with the new skill talent and the defense's replacements settle faster than expected, Memphis pushes back toward eight or nine wins. If the coverage attrition shows up on Saturdays the way the roster data suggests it could, 7.4 looks like a ceiling rather than a baseline.