JP+ One-Sheet

Memphis

American | 2026

Projected Wins

7.4

Team Thesis

Memphis Hands Charles Huff a Roster in Transition, Not a Rebuild. Charles Huff takes over a Memphis program that won eight games last year, and he inherits a team built to look above average overall even as the pieces underneath shift considerably.

Model Profile

#59

JP+ Rank

#56

Offense

#54

Defense

+3.1

Overall

+1.2

Offense

+0.8

Defense

Why JP+ Converges

7.5

Market

7.4

JP+

7.8

SP+

JP+ GAP: -0.1 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#62

Rated coverage76%

Candidate members83

Rated players63

Season Path

Early equity

Bowl path91%

4-2 start80%

Collapse risk9%

80% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 91%. Collapse risk 9% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.0 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 77% to 40%.

Bull Case

9-3

If Lewis finds quick chemistry with the new skill talent and the defense's replacements settle faster than expected, Memphis pushes back toward…

Bear Case

6-6

If the coverage attrition shows up on Saturdays the way the roster data suggests it could, 7.4 looks like a ceiling rather than a baseline.

American Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
South Florida	8.2	8.5	8.1
Navy	7.8	7.5	8.0
Army	7.6	--	7.2
Memphis	7.4	7.5	7.8
East Carolina	7.4	7.5	7.6
UTSA	7.2	7.5	7.5
Tulsa	6.7	5.5	6.6
FAU	6.4	5.5	6.5