JP+ One-Sheet
Memphis
American | 2026
Projected Wins
7.4
Model Profile
#50
JP+ Rank
#51
Off Adj
#50
Def Adj
Overall
+3.8
Offense
+1.4
Defense
+1.1
Win Total Context
7.5
Market
7.4
JP+
7.5
SP+
Bowl Path91%
Fast Start81%
Collapse Risk9%
Path Shape
Early equity
81% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 91%. Collapse risk 9% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 74% to 40%.
American Athletic Win Totals
| Team | JP+ | Mkt | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.2 | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Navy | 7.9 | 7.5 | 8.1 |
| Army | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| East Carolina | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 |
| Memphis | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| UTSA | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Tulsa | 6.6 | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| North Texas | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Tulane | 6.2 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| FAU | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| Temple | 6.1 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| UAB | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 |