Memphis

The Tigers face their biggest personnel reset in recent memory, with 47 players departing through the portal while 51 newcomers arrive to reshape a roster that went 8-4 in 2025. New head coach Charles Huff inherits a team that grades out modestly at +0.9 nationally (#57), with the defense (+1.0, #54) carrying a below-average offense (+0.2, #62) and problematic special teams (-0.2, #106). Memphis lost significant skill position talent as receiver Jamari Hawkins (22.9 PPA) and running back Sutton Smith (14.5 PPA) both transferred to Arkansas, but countered by adding Southern Miss receiver Tychaun Chapman (17.0 PPA), Middle Tennessee tight end Hunter Tipton (16.8 PPA), and Cincinnati running back Manny Covey (15.9 PPA). Quarterback Brendon Lewis returns as the starter, providing continuity at the most important position amid widespread roster flux.

JP+ projects 7.0 wins for the Tigers, who face a challenging slate that includes road trips to South Florida, Navy, and Boise State while getting more favorable matchups against Charlotte, UAB, and UT Martin. The gap between departed production (80.2 PPA) and incoming talent (54.9 PPA) suggests this could be a developmental year as Huff integrates his new pieces into the system. If the defense maintains its solid play and Lewis develops chemistry quickly with his new skill position players, Memphis could approach nine wins and compete for the American Athletic Conference title. If the transition proves rocky and special teams remain a liability, seven wins might be the ceiling.