Marshall's offseason theme is straightforward: replace lost backfield production without changing quarterbacks. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson returns as the starter, giving the offense continuity at the position that matters most, even as the team said goodbye to Justin Williams-Thomas (11.6 PPA) to UMass and Michael Allen (8.7 PPA) to East Carolina. The portal response was aggressive — 26 arrivals against 22 departures, headlined by West Virginia transfer Khalil Wilkins (11.7 PPA), plus receivers Chris Culliver from North Carolina and Christian Hamilton from West Virginia. The offense projects as below average overall, and target-share continuity is the specific concern here, with Demarcus Lacey and Antwan Roberts among the departed pass catchers who took real production with them. The defense, by contrast, looks roughly average and comes back with stable continuity, no major role losses jumping off the page, which should let that side of the ball anchor things while the receiving corps sorts itself out. Special teams should be a quiet plus all year.

JP+ pegs Marshall at 7.4 projected wins in a 12-game slate, a number shaped by a schedule that sends them on the road to Penn State, James Madison, and Georgia Southern, while home dates against Middle Tennessee, Georgia State, and Gardner-Webb offer the clearest paths to wins. The gap between that projection and any market expectation likely comes down to how quickly the receiver room gels around Del Rio-Wilson and whether Wilkins pushes the ceiling of the offense higher than a simple replacement-level add. If the new pass-catchers hit early and the defense holds serve as expected, Marshall built for a coordinate offense with year-over-year quarterback continuity in the roughly-average range. If the target-share losses linger and the passing game stalls, the floor is a defense-carries-everything season that finishes short of bowl eligibility.