JP+ One-Sheet
Marshall
Sun Belt | 2026
Projected Wins
7.6Team Thesis
Marshall Leans on Portal Additions to Replace Its Backfield. Marshall's offseason theme is straightforward: replace lost backfield production without changing quarterbacks.
Model Profile
#90
JP+ Rank
#95
Offense
#86
Defense
Why JP+ Converges
7.5
Market
7.6
JP+
7.7
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
56% to start 4-2 or better. Bowl path 94%. Collapse risk 6% (5 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.6 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk5: 86% to 38%.
Bull Case
9-3If the new pass-catchers hit early and the defense holds serve as expected, Marshall built for a coordinate offense with year-over-year quarterb…
Bear Case
6-6If the target-share losses linger and the passing game stalls, the floor is a defense-carries-everything season that finishes short of bowl elig…
Sun Belt Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 7.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Marshall | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Arkansas State | 7.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
| Louisiana | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Appalachian State | 6.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| Troy | 6.4 | 6.5 | 7.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 6.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Old Dominion | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.2 |