The offseason theme in Ruston is attrition, not on the depth chart but at the position groups that made 2025 work. Twenty-four players left via the portal, headlined by running backs Clay Thevenin and Omiri Wiggins and wideout Marlion Jackson, who combined for nearly 50 points of PPA production before scattering to Rutgers, McNeese, and Virginia Tech. Blake Baker returns at quarterback, so the passing offense at least keeps its signal-caller, but the skill-position turnover leaves an offense already projected as bottom-tier searching for answers on the perimeter and in the backfield. The defense, by contrast, profiles as roughly average, but it isn't immune to change either — role loss and coverage attrition show up in the secondary, where replacement confidence sits at medium and analysts have flagged the group for a closer look. Special teams round out the picture as a mild drag rather than an asset, leaving little margin for the offense to lean on hidden-yardage help.

JP+ pegs Louisiana Tech at 6.3 projected wins, a number shaped heavily by that offensive uncertainty and the secondary questions on defense. The schedule offers a reasonable path — road trips to LSU and Baylor and a home date with Army stand out as the toughest tests, while Southern Miss, ULM, and Northwestern State represent clearer opportunities to bank wins. Justice Williams arrives from West Florida to help the defensive line, but the bulk of the incoming class carries modest continuity value against what walked out the door. If the secondary holds up and Baker finds functional replacements for his lost skill talent, this group can push past 6.3 and threaten bowl eligibility again. If the coverage attrition proves real and the run game never replaces Thevenin and Wiggins, a step back toward the middle of the Sun Belt is the more likely outcome.