Louisiana Tech

The Bulldogs must replace their entire backfield after losing Clay Thevenin (21.5 PPA) to Rutgers and Omiri Wiggins (10.5 PPA) to McNeese via the transfer portal, creating a massive hole in an offense that already projects as one of the nation's worst units. Louisiana Tech's offense grades out 113th nationally at -4.7 points, dragging down a team whose defense ranks a respectable 61st and kept them competitive in a 7-5 campaign. The portal damage extends beyond the running game, with receiver Marlion Jackson (17.9 PPA) departing for Virginia Tech, leaving quarterback Blake Baker with fewer proven weapons despite his return as the starter.

JP+ projects 6.4 wins for the Bulldogs in their Sun Belt slate, a modest step back from last season's seven victories that reflects the offensive uncertainty more than any defensive decline. The special teams unit ranks 110th nationally, compounding the offensive struggles and creating little margin for error in close games against quality opponents like LSU, Baylor, and Troy on the road. Justice Williams arrives from West Florida to bolster a defense that should remain the program's strength, but the coverage instability in the secondary creates some uncertainty about maintaining last year's defensive standard. If Baker can distribute touches effectively to unproven skill players and the defense holds steady, eight wins remains possible. If the offensive line struggles to create rushing lanes for new faces, this could be a long rebuilding year in Ruston.