JP+ One-Sheet

Louisiana Tech

Sun Belt | 2026

Projected Wins

6.4

Team Thesis

Louisiana Tech Faces Coverage Questions After Losing Its Backfield Depth. The offseason theme in Ruston is attrition, not on the depth chart but at the position groups that made 2025 work.

Model Profile

#105

JP+ Rank

#117

Offense

#78

Defense

-6.8

Overall

-5.4

Offense

-0.5

Defense

Why JP+ Is Higher

5.5

Market

6.4

JP+

6.5

SP+

JP+ GAP: +0.9 WINS

Roster Snapshot

Roster stock#119

Rated coverage58%

Candidate members67

Rated players39

Season Path

Cliff risk

Bowl path74%

3-3 start73%

Collapse risk2%

73% to start 3-3 or better. Bowl path 74%. Collapse risk 2% (3 or fewer wins). Schedule is back-loaded by -0.4 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk2: 99% to 4%.

Bull Case

8-4

If the secondary holds up and Baker finds functional replacements for his lost skill talent, this group can push past 6.3 and threaten bowl elig…

Bear Case

5-7

If the coverage attrition proves real and the run game never replaces Thevenin and Wiggins, a step back toward the middle of the Sun Belt is the…

Sun Belt Context

Team	JP+	Market	SP+
James Madison	7.7	8.5	8.9
Marshall	7.6	7.5	7.7
Arkansas State	7.0	6.5	6.6
Louisiana	6.8	7.5	7.5
Appalachian State	6.8	5.5	6.2
Troy	6.4	6.5	7.2
Louisiana Tech	6.4	5.5	6.5
Old Dominion	6.1	7.5	7.2