Liberty's offseason theme is turnover at running back disguised as continuity everywhere else. Ethan Vasko returns as the starting quarterback, and with 100% QB return share and 74% offensive line continuity, the pieces around him look sturdier than the raw transfer numbers suggest. But the Flames lost Evan Dickens (38.0 PPA) to Boston College and watched Donte Lee Jr. (22.9 PPA) head to Texas Tech, forcing them to rebuild skill-position production almost from scratch. They responded by bringing in Terron Kellman (15.3 PPA) from Wyoming and Kam Davis (7.8 PPA) from Florida State, while Deshawn Purdie arrives from Wake Forest to push Vasko or provide insurance behind him. The offense projects as roughly average, the defense as below average, and special teams as below average too, which lines up with a group replacing role players — role loss numbers on defense are moderate, with coverage responsibilities changing hands more than the pass rush.

JP+ projects Liberty for 8.1 wins out of 12, a number that should read as a mild step forward from last year's 4-8 mark rather than a full turnaround. The gap between that projection and public perception likely comes down to the defense's uncertain identity and a special-teams unit that isn't expected to help close games, both of which cap the ceiling even with a stable quarterback situation. The schedule offers a runway — home games against Gardner-Webb, Ball State and Sam Houston should be manageable — while road trips to James Madison, Kennesaw State and Delaware will test whether the defensive continuity concerns are real. If Vasko builds chemistry with the new backfield and the defense holds up in coverage, Liberty pushes toward the higher end of that 8.1 projection. If the role losses on defense compound early, a repeat of last season's struggles is very much on the table.