JP+ One-Sheet
Liberty
Conference USA | 2026
Projected Wins
8.2Team Thesis
Liberty Rebuilds Its Backfield and Leans on Ethan Vasko to Steady the Ship. Liberty's offseason theme is turnover at running back disguised as continuity everywhere else.
Model Profile
#85
JP+ Rank
#81
Offense
#96
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
8.5
Market
8.2
JP+
8.9
SP+
JP+ GAP: -0.3 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#73
Rated coverage70%
Candidate members84
Rated players59
Season Path
Soft landing
Bowl path97%
5-1 start42%
Collapse risk10%
42% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 97%. Collapse risk 10% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk8: 91% to 55%.
Bull Case
10-2If Vasko builds chemistry with the new backfield and the defense holds up in coverage, Liberty pushes toward the higher end of that 8.2 projecti…
Bear Case
7-5If the role losses on defense compound early, a repeat of last season's struggles is very much on the table.
Conference USA Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Jacksonville State | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Western Kentucky | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.1 |
| FIU | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
| Kennesaw State | 6.6 | -- | 6.6 |
| Delaware | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5.9 |
| Missouri State | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 |