Liberty

Liberty's offseason centers on replacing significant offensive production after key departures stripped away their most impactful skill position players. Running back Evan Dickens (38.0 PPA) transferred to Boston College while receiver Donte Lee Jr. (22.9 PPA) moved on to Texas Tech, creating holes that new arrivals like Wyoming transfer Terron Kellman (15.3 PPA) and Florida State's Kam Davis (7.8 PPA) must fill. The Flames rank 102nd nationally in JP+'s preseason ratings at -5.8 points, with an offense grading out at -1.6 (#80) that shows promise despite the personnel turnover. Quarterback Ethan Vasko returns as the starter, providing crucial continuity in the passing game even as the supporting cast around him has largely changed through 19 portal departures.

JP+ projects Liberty for 7.0 wins in Conference USA play, well below the betting market's 8.5-win over/under that creates significant value on the under (28% edge). The mixed continuity profile creates uncertainty around how quickly new pieces will mesh, particularly on defense where moderate replacement risk could expose vulnerabilities early in the season. Road trips to Delaware, James Madison, and Kennesaw State represent the toughest tests on a schedule that includes favorable home matchups against Gardner-Webb, Ball State, and Sam Houston. If the offensive replacements click quickly and Vasko elevates his play, Liberty could challenge for bowl eligibility. If not, another disappointing campaign similar to last year's 4-8 finish becomes the more likely outcome.