Mark Carney takes over for Kenni Burns as an internal promotion, which means the program's structural approach carries over even as the personnel around it shifts. Dru Deshields returns at quarterback, which counts as real continuity given how much turned over at receiver. Cade Wolford left for Cincinnati and Da'Shawn Martin left for Virginia, taking a combined 51.6 PPA of receiving production with them, and the portal class that arrived — headlined by running back Jakorion Caffey from Cincinnati — leans more toward replacing bodies than replacing production. That's the swing factor here: 15 departures against 11 arrivals, with the incoming group actually rating below replacement level by PPA. The defense held steadier through the portal window, which fits a program projecting as bottom-tier across offense, defense, and special teams — not a group with an obvious carried-over strength to lean on this time.

JP+ projects 4.1 wins, and the schedule explains why that number feels tight rather than generous. Road trips to Ohio State, South Carolina and South Florida are unwinnable stress tests, while home dates against Ball State and Wofford, plus a trip to Sacramento State, represent the actual path to bowl-eligibility math. The gap between projection and any rosier outside expectation traces straight back to the receiver room — target share on offense cratered to essentially zero returning, per the continuity data, even with Deshields back under center and 73% of the offensive line intact. If a receiver emerges quickly to stabilize that passing attack, four or five wins is very reachable. If not, this group could scrape closer to three, leaning hard on the defense and the schedule's softer patches to get there.