JP+ One-Sheet
Kent State
Mid-American | 2026
Projected Wins
4.2Team Thesis
Kent State Promotes From Within While the Passing Game Rebuilds Around Dru Deshields. Mark Carney takes over for Kenni Burns as an internal promotion, which means the program's structural approach carries over even as the personnel around it shifts.
Model Profile
#131
JP+ Rank
#129
Offense
#131
Defense
Why JP+ Is Higher
3.5
Market
4.2
JP+
3.8
SP+
Roster Snapshot
Season Path
Cliff risk
76% to start 2-4 or better. Bowl path 16%. Collapse risk 2% (1 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +0.1 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk3: 84% to 1%.
Bull Case
6-6If a receiver emerges quickly to stabilize that passing attack, four or five wins is very reachable.
Bear Case
3-9If not, this group could scrape closer to three, leaning hard on the defense and the schedule's softer patches to get there.
Mid-American Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Miami (OH) | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Western Michigan | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| Ohio | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Buffalo | 6.3 | -- | 7.0 |
| Akron | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 |
| Kent State | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Ball State | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 |