Kansas State

Collin Klein inherits a Kansas State program ready to infuse tempo and pop into a speedy offense that could finally control the clock in the Big 12 title mix. The Wildcats grade out modestly at +2.5 points nationally (#47), with an offense that ranks 47th (+1.5) and a defense sitting 59th (+0.4), though special teams excellence (21st) provides a foundation. Quarterback Avery Johnson returns as the starter, but he'll work with a reshuffled supporting cast after losing receiver Jayce Brown (30.3 PPA) to LSU and running back Dylan Edwards to Kansas, while adding Oklahoma State transfer Rodney Fields Jr. (15.1 PPA) and Missouri receiver Joshua Manning (12.6 PPA) to replace that production.

JP+ projects 6.6 wins for Kansas State, sitting well under the market's 7.5-win expectation as structural continuity concerns create uncertainty around Klein's first season. The offense carries significant fragility beyond Johnson's return, with major turnover along the offensive line and throughout the skill positions, while the defense lost edge rusher Ryan Davis (48.5 PPA) to Baylor and faces front-seven attrition that threatens pressure generation. If Klein's tempo-based system maximizes Johnson's mobility and the portal additions gel quickly, the Wildcats could surprise in a competitive Big 12. If the offensive line struggles and defensive pressure drops off, Kansas State will fight just to reach bowl eligibility again.