Collin Klein's promotion to head coach is the whole story in Manhattan this offseason, and the pitch is simple: speed things up. Avery Johnson returns for another year as the starter, giving Klein a proven piece to build an up-tempo attack around rather than break in someone new under center. But the surrounding cast looks different. Jayce Brown took his 30.3 PPA to LSU, Dylan Edwards left for Kansas, and Jerand Bradley and Antonio Martin Jr. are also gone, which means a passing game that leaned heavily on Johnson now leans even more on him. Rodney Fields Jr. arrives from Oklahoma State to help replace Edwards in the backfield, while Joshua Manning and Brandon White come in from Missouri and Hawaii to restock a receiver room that lost real production. The offense projects as roughly average, a defense that's carried this program looks above average again, and the special teams unit is a legitimate difference-maker. That combination — steady defense, dangerous kicking game, offense searching for its identity in transition — is a fair summary of where Kansas State sits. The defense does have its own questions, starting with Ryan Davis and his 48.5 PPA now at Baylor, thinning out an edge rotation that will need answers up front.

JP+ projects 7.2 wins, a number that reflects real quality but also real uncertainty around continuity — the offensive line is largely turning over, and the front seven has to replace its most disruptive pass rusher. Klein's tempo could make the offense more efficient than raw personnel suggests, and a defense that only needs to hold its ground could be enough to win a Big 12 that lacks a clear standard-bearer. The schedule offers a runway: Washington State, Tulane, and Nicholls at home should be manageable, while road trips to Arizona State, Cincinnati, and TCU will test whether the line and edge rotation have stabilized by midseason. If the offensive line gels quickly and Johnson has enough support around him, this group plays into the Big 12 title mix. If the trench questions linger, 7.2 wins is a reasonable outcome rather than a floor.