JP+ One-Sheet
Kansas State
Big 12 | 2026
Projected Wins
7.4Team Thesis
Collin Klein Takes Over, Bringing Tempo to a Defense-First Program. Collin Klein's promotion to head coach is the whole story in Manhattan this offseason, and the pitch is simple: speed things up.
Model Profile
#37
JP+ Rank
#50
Offense
#34
Defense
Why JP+ Is Lower
8.5
Market
7.4
JP+
8.1
SP+
JP+ GAP: -1.1 WINS
Roster Snapshot
Roster stock#55
Rated coverage73%
Candidate members66
Rated players48
Season Path
Front-loaded
Bowl path89%
5-1 start46%
Collapse risk27%
46% to start 5-1 or better. Bowl path 89%. Collapse risk 27% (6 or fewer wins). Schedule is front-loaded by +1.2 wins through the first six. Biggest shift Wk4: 82% to 47%.
Bull Case
9-3If the offensive line gels quickly and Johnson has enough support around him, this group plays into the Big 12 title mix.
Bear Case
6-6If the trench questions linger, 7.4 wins is a reasonable outcome rather than a floor.
Big 12 Context
| Team | JP+ | Market | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.6 |
| Utah | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| BYU | 7.6 | 8.5 | 8.8 |
| Kansas State | 7.4 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| Arizona | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| UCF | 6.9 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Houston | 6.7 | 8.5 | 7.4 |
| TCU | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.4 |